An Integrated Predictive Model of Population Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D for Application in Strategy Development for Vitamin D Deficiency Prevention.
Study Goal
The researchers aimed to develop and validate a mathematical model to predict how vitamin D fortification in dairy and other foods could affect serum 25(OH)D concentrations and reduce deficiency prevalence.
Results Summary
The model predicted that fortifying dairy-related products, along with other foods, could reduce vitamin D deficiency prevalence from 18.1% to 6.6% during winter. The integrated model was validated using independent data, showing accurate predictions.
Population
Irish adults aged 18-64 years.
Effective Dosage
Not specified (hypothetical fortification scenarios).
Duration
Not specified (model based on seasonal UVB availability).
Interactions
None mentioned.
| Intervention | Direction | Endpoint | Population | Dosage | Impact | Claim # |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UVB availability and hours of sunlight | neutral | serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations | Irish adults aged 18-64 y | - | were used to predict | #1 |
dose-related vitamin D supplementation | neutral | serum 25(OH)D concentrations | adults | - | was developed and integrated into the model | #2 |
3 vitamin D food fortification scenarios | neutral | vitamin D intake | representative sample of Irish adults | - | were used in the model as a test | #3 |
UVB- and vitamin D intake-serum 25(OH)D components of the integrated model | neutral | - | - | - | were both validated | #4 |
the model | neutral | percentage of vitamin D deficiency [serum 25(OH)D <30 nmol/L] | the adult population during an extended winter period | 18.1% | predicted that the percentage of vitamin D deficiency was | #5 |
the model | decrease | percentage of vitamin D deficiency [serum 25(OH)D <30 nmol/L] | the adult population during an extended winter period | - | predicted that the percentage of vitamin D deficiency could be reduced in a stepwise manner | #6 |
increased number of vitamin D-fortified foods | decrease | percentage of vitamin D deficiency [serum 25(OH)D <30 nmol/L] | the adult population during an extended winter period | - | could reduce the percentage of vitamin D deficiency | #7 |
enhanced fortified dairy-related products, fat spreads, fruit juice and drinks, and cereal products | decrease | percentage of vitamin D deficiency [serum 25(OH)D <30 nmol/L] | the adult population during an extended winter period | 6.6% | could reduce the percentage of vitamin D deficiency to | #8 |
vitamin D food fortification in various constructs | neutral | population serum 25(OH)D concentrations and the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency | - | - | may affect | #9 |
BACKGROUND: To enable food-based strategies for the prevention of vitamin D deficiency to be evidence-based, there is a need to develop integrated predictive models of population serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] that are responsive to both solar and dietary inputs of vitamin D. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this work were to develop and validate an integrated mathematical model with the use of data on UVB availability, exposure, and dietary intake to predict serum 25(OH)D concentrations in a nationally representative sample of adults, and then test the model's performance with the use of 3 hypothetical fortification scenarios as exemplars. METHODS: Data on UVB availability and hours of sunlight in Ireland were used in a mathematical model to predict serum 25(OH)D in Irish adults aged 18-64 y. An equation from our dose-related vitamin D supplementation trial in adults was developed and integrated into the model, which allowed us to predict the impact of changes in dietary vitamin D on the contribution to annual serum 25(OH)D concentrations, accounting for seasonality of UVB availability. Recently published estimates of the impact of 3 vitamin D food fortification scenarios on vitamin D intake in a representative sample of Irish adults were used in the model as a test. RESULTS: The UVB- and vitamin D intake-serum 25(OH)D components of the integrated model were both validated with the use of independent data. The model predicted that the percentage of vitamin D deficiency [serum 25(OH)D <30 nmol/L] in the adult population during an extended winter period was 18.1% (vs. 18.6% measured), which could be reduced in a stepwise manner with the incorporation of an increased number of vitamin D-fortified foods, down to 6.6% with the inclusion of enhanced fortified dairy-related products, fat spreads, fruit juice and drinks, and cereal products. CONCLUSION: Mathematical models have the ability to inform how vitamin D food fortification in various constructs may affect population serum 25(OH)D concentrations and the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency.